Geomodeling

Many geomarketing objectives require not just analyzing on the level of federal subjects, municipalities and political subdivisions but also carrying out detailed geomarketing researches detailing inside the city. Therefore (including the aims of budget savings), it is often necessary to resort to modeling and geomodeling. It is particularly topical in the following cases:

  • Lack of data for analysis of geomarketing factors (filling the gaps);
  • Identification of interactions and formations of the scenarios of entrance to the market;
  • Selection of the most interesting and uninteresting zones, etc.

Suitability zones model. Suitability zones models are used for multifactorial geomarketing analysis if it is necessary to find zones of higher location probability of target audience in the city area. These models allow to “cut off” zones of city territories wittingly uninteresting for further consideration and to reduce costs of research and development specialists (field workers) work. This model was for the first time designed by the specialists of The Center for Spatial Research in 2003. Today it is ubiquitously widespread among consulting and retail companies.

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Model for determining the optimal location. While entering to the new markets in a competitive environment it is necessary to understand in which city location where the point situation will be optimal, taking into account distribution of the population, places of employment, competitor objects attraction. Analysis of the large trading objects, city transport system, offered land parcels and building possibility is necessary in addition to the analysis of the best location. This complex analysis allows to make a balanced decision on the placement location and tenants staff of the planned shopping centers.

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Huff model (cannibalization). Model simplicity allows getting ina short time the answers for the question of the most likely trading object zone, ease of access to it from the different parts of the city. This model is used for calculation of the market shares, including chain or market development scenarios (retail trade players), to forecast the revenue and to determine the cannibalization degree. These scenary calculations in the near future will become the most important retail task in the conditions of cities markets saturation and fight at the intersection of trading zones. It is difficult to use this model in Russia. Different model modifications exist. These modifications are developed by the specialists of The Center for Spatial Research. Huff model in detail.

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Model for determining the city “central point”. Placing “at the center” is often considered as optimal for retail. But due to the city structure features it may be unobvious which point is the geographical center. Moreover, geographical center may not to coincide with the center considering population distribution.

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Model for determining the zones of high and low values. This model may be used if it is necessary to determine the highest and lowest population density in the city. Different formats of trading objects may be introduced for the zones of high and low population density.

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Geostatistic models. Interpolation models allow making probabilistic forecast in the locations that don’t have data or its collection is impossible. Also models of this type allow making forecasts of chain activity indexes depending on presence on the territory of environment factors influencing these indexes (revenue, amount of visitors, amount of operations, etc.). Other models can be developed: model of the possibility of object closing in the city, spatial sales trends for a big chain, spatial forecasts of exceeding a threshold (e.g. commodity turnover) and much more.

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Density geomodels. They are used for the analysis of competition (trading density), population density, high competitive environment zones, pedestrian flows density, concentration of the boarding places of the passengers of public transport and for the detection of transport hubs. They show the places of accumulation of objects, population (residing, working and moving) and are used for drawing territories portrait by consumer profile (solvent population, pensioners, students, “mothers”, “night people”, etc.). Another one objective solvable by means of density geomodels is the objective of detection of actually formed service zones for the monitoring of existing chain activity and for justification of zoning for the forecast for new objects.

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Geomodels developed by The Center for Spatial Research for the deeper geomarketing analysis inside the cities:

–          Geomodel of the possibility of solvent population distribution

–          Geomodel of people flows distribution

–          Geomodel of movements of specific group of people

–          Geomodel of working people distribution

–          Geomodel of trading density

–          Geomodel of banking density and others

Geomarketing Solutions for Fitness Center Chain Development